![]() ![]() And can it really be accurately calculated to some fractions of a degree Celsius?ĪR6, which runs to over 4,000-pages, claims to have accurately quantified everything including confidence ranges for the ‘observation’ of 1.07 ☌. So, the average global temperature for each year since 1850 could never be a direct ‘observation’, but rather, at best, a statistic calculated from measurements taken at thousands of weather stations across the world. Of course, there is nowhere on Earth where the average global temperature can be measured it is very cold at the poles and rather warmer in the tropics. There are better tools for generating weather and climate forecasts, specifically artificial neural networks (ANNs) that are a form of artificial intelligence. That the latest IPCC report, Assessment Report 6, suggests catastrophe if we cannot contain warming to 1.5 ☌ is not in accordance with the empirical evidence, but rather a conclusion based entirely on simulation modelling falsely assuming these models can accurately simulate ocean and atmospheric weather systems. Indeed, the empirical evidence, as published in the best peer-reviewed journals, would suggest that there is no reason to be concerned by a 1.5 ☌ rise in global temperatures over a period of one hundred years – that this is neither unusual in terms of rate nor magnitude. These records show global temperatures have cycled within a range of up to 1.8 ☌ over the last thousand years. ![]() These types of records provide evidence for periods of time over the past several thousand years (the late Holocene) that were either colder, or experienced similar temperatures, to the present, for example the Little Ice Age (1309 to 1814) and the Medieval Warm Period (985 to 1200), respectively. To understand how climate has varied over much longer periods, over hundreds and thousands of years, various types of proxy records can be assembled derived from the annual rings of long-lived tree species, corals and stalagmites. They are not unusual in magnitude, direction or rate of change, which should diminish fears that recent climate change is somehow catastrophic. The real-world temperature trends that I have observed at Australian locations with long temperature records would suggest a much greater rate of temperature rise since 1960, and cooling before that.Īllowing some historical perspective shows that the IPCC is wrong to label the recent temperature changes ‘unprecedented’. Yet the same modelling is only claiming the Earth is warming by some fractions of a degree Celsius! Specifically, the claim is that we humans have caused 1.06 ☌ of the claimed 1.07 ☌ rise in temperatures since 1850, which is not very much. Many are frightened by the official analysis of the model’s results, which claims global warming is unprecedented in more than 2000 years. It is certainly based on a suite* of very complex simulation models (CMIP6). It’s being touted as the most comprehensive climate change report ever. I was at the Australian National University in October 2018, when the largest supercomputer in the Southern Hemisphere began running the simulations that have now been published as the IPCC’s Assessment Report No. ![]()
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